IS IT appropriate to offer the traditional wish of a “prosperous New Year” in the thick of a recession that could cost the people you are greeting their livelihoods?

Maybe it would sound a little less hollow if you also provide some economic analysis to substantiate the optimistic note.

Locally, 2008 was remarkable for being Liverpool's year as European Capital of Culture, the opening of the Echo Arena and BT Convention Centre, and Grosvenor's £1bn Liverpool One shopping development.

The extra tourists visiting the city, the new convention trade and the jobs created by the new shops have made a big difference.

Sadly, though, the City Fathers could do nothing to predict the credit crunch. All their hard work put into planning a fantastic 2008 can't save the region from the downturn. It’s going to hurt. If you have any doubts about that, just read Stephen Roberts’s comments about the hotel trade on the front page of today's LDP Business.

Internationally, the problems are also huge. The economic slowdown is going to throw millions out of work.

But there are some glimmers of hope. America has elected its first intelligent President in a long time, a man who can provide personal leadership and who cares passionately about ordinary people whether they live in Illinois or East Africa.

As a result, Barack Obama, who takes over at the White House next month, will engage with the world and want to see its economy thrive more than most previous American Presidents ever did.

Another glimmer of hope is that, once the world's banks start lending to each other again, which might be within the next few months, economic growth could pick up surprisingly rapidly, though the fear of unemployment will also have to be dispelled, and that is likely to take much longer.

The weakness of the pound may also bring its own silver lining.

In recent weeks, sterling has taken a hammering.

Increasingly grim UK economic data has combined with low trading levels in the foreign exchange markets to push the currency down.

The main risk from a plunging pound is a deflationary spiral whereby prices fall rapidly, pushing down high street sales and putting already under-pressure retailers and suppliers into even more dire straits.

All sounds a bit grim, but the potential upside to a plunging pound can be seen by looking at how the country came out of an earlier recession. Britain’s recovery from the slump of the early 1990s was led by a boom in exports thanks to the low value of the pound. When sterling is weak, goods made in the UK become cheaper at home and abroad, and therefore more attractive to buyers.

Merseyside’s tourism industry could also be a major beneficiary of the low pound. It is expected more British people will opt to take their holidays in the UK rather than going abroad, which could help Liverpool establish itself as a short break destination.

We could also see more visitors coming here from Europe as they will be able to purchase more pounds for their euros.

So we may no longer be European Capital of Culture, but global economic forces may yet conspire to give the region's tourist trade a different type of lift in 2009. Whatever happens, next year will not be a quiet one.

So, assuming Barack Obama delivers, the pound remains low and the banks start lending again, have a prosperous New Year.