IT’S A big week.

An important bit of data to be published this morning by the Office for National Statistics will to some degree set the mood in the country, just hours before the Royal Wedding.

I am, of course, talking about gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the first three months of 2011.

Imagine if there is another drop in output. Coming on top of a 0.5% dip in the last quarter of 2010, it would mean Britain would have officially suffered a return to recession. It would renew people’s fears about prospects for their jobs and businesses, just as the Royal couple and their 1,700 guests enjoy a lavish and expensive celebration.

On the other hand, if the GDP figures show strong growth, then the mood will be lifted.

While the chances are that the data will be in positive territory, the national economy is still pretty shaky. The most recent indications are a source of concern.

According to the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI’s) latest survey published yesterday, Britain's manufacturers made a lacklustre start to the second quarter of 2011, with orders unexpectedly weakening in April, suggesting the recovery of the UK economy remains fragile.

The CBI said its Industrial Trends manufacturing orders balance fell to -11 in April – its lowest since January – down from a three-year high of +5 last month. It is therefore particularly disappointing. A reading of +3 has been expected. The survey also adds to the Bank of England’s dilemma about how to curb inflation while the economy is still shaky. In a sign that inflationary pressures are continuing to grow, the CBI survey shows respondents think prices will continue to rise.

Irrespective of the outcome of tomorrow’s data, the overwhelming impression is one of continuing uncertainty about the recovery. Our economy will one day pick up, but it does not yet look as if the accelerator is about to pressed.

The bad news from the manufacturing sector came on the same day as Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance urged his fellow members to raise rates.

He said in a speech delivered in Manchester yesterday that early action by the MPC to raise the bank rate was necessary if the bank was to maintain its credibility as a bulwark against inflation.

Mind you, he has being saying that for some time.

Mr Sentance, who is the most hawkish member of the MPC and steps down next month, said that the MPC had allowed sterling to weaken too much, and had sent signals to markets that it was prepared to be soft on inflation.

Mr Sentance has voted for higher interest rates since the middle of last year, and called for a 0.5 percentage point interest rate rise at April’s policy meeting.

I guess that’s why today’s GDP data is so crucial. Any sign of economic weakness could deter the bank from tough anti-inflationary action.

Of course, if rates are increased at the next meeting of the MPC next week, it could result in higher mortgage interest payments for millions of people around the country already suffering from real falls in living standards as a result of rising inflation, petrol prices, wage freezes, etc.

On the other hand, a poor GDP figure may inspire fears about unemployment.

I wonder if any of this is bothering Wills and Kate. I doubt it. Their very privileged and cosseted futures are mapped out for them.