National Statistics Office annual report indicates recession is over

OFFICIAL figures to be published later today are expected to show that Britain’s recession is over.

The figures, published by the Office for National Statistics, should show economic output rose in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The news should mark the official end to the country’s longest-ever recession.

Jack Stopforth, chief executive of Liverpool Chamber of Commerce said: “It’s about time, as apart from Spain, we’re the last major European country to come out of recession.” said Stopforth.

“But this is very good news. We’ve had an extraordinarily torrid last 12 -18 months.”

However, Mr Stopforth remains worried about the prospects of a “double-dip” recession, where a slight recovery is followed by further slump back into recession later this year.

“A double-dip would obviously extend the period of recession,” he said.

“It will be a year after the forthcoming General Election before we experience deep cuts to public sector spending.”

Mr Stopforth warned there should be “no indiscriminate cutting” of public spending.

“The cancellation of new projects, like schools and hospitals, would have severe implications for our members,” he said. “It’s all going in the right direction, albeit from a modestly low base,” Mr Stopforth added.

Peter Stoney, honorary senior fellow in economics at Liverpool University’s management school, is upbeat about the Merseyside economy.

Mr Stoney, who is also a director of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, dismissed the idea that the UK economy might dip back into recession.

He said: “We expect growth will continue all this year.

“There is low inflation and low interest rates (which may rise mid-year) and low employment.

“We have a large budget deficit, but in the Macro group’s view, there’s no need for drastic cuts in public expenditure.

“The Government’s handling of the recession has been quite good, as is the bigger picture for 2010 and 2011.

“We will have an export-led recovery as sterling has devalued over the last 12 months.

“The global recovery will continue with Japan and China showing good growth.

“This will benefit the UK and Merseyside economy.

“Although one of the last industrial nations to come out of recession, we’re only one quarter behind the rest.”

During the 18-month recession, output has fallen 6%, making it a deeper downturn than that of the early 1990s.

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