THE latest Future Trends Survey published by the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA), showed architects believed a double-dip recession was “almost certain”.

Announcing the survey, Adrian Dobson of RIBA said:

THIS is the fifth consecutive month in which The RIBA Future Trends Workload Index has fallen, and it has now entered negative territory for the first time since April 2009, providing a clear indication that architects now anticipate a further significant downturn in overall levels of business. It is now medium-sized practices which are the most pessimistic about their future work prospects.

Scotland and Northern Ireland remain the least confident locations in terms of a geographical analysis of the survey returns.

The overall sense is that the general election has not had the effect of improving confidence, with many clients still very reluctant to commit to capital programmes. With interest rates remaining at an all-time low, the bespoke, private residential sector remains buoyant in many locations, but some practices report little recovery in private sector multiple housing.

Many architects active in the residential sector are anxious about the impact of the proposed VAT increase.

A number of practices which have managed to maintain workloads report that the value of projects, in terms of size and fees, is generally reducing, with consequent impact on profit margins and salary levels. More specialist work, such as conservation, seems to be offering a safer haven.

Commentary submitted by our respondents this month focuses on a number of themes which have featured consistently throughout the life of the RIBA Future Trends Survey, including intense fee competition, delays in the release of development funding from banks, late and non-payment of fees and delays in the planning application system.

Adrian Dobson is RIBA’s Director of Practice