LIVERPOOL John Lennon Airport (JLA) has attacked government growth estimates for the business as “patently wrong”.
The Department for Transport (DfT) has published growth forecasts for UK airports up to 2050.
Predictions for Liverpool JLA see the 2010 passenger level of 5m showing no growth over the decade to 2020 and only growing by 1m by 2030, before soaring to 20m by 2050.
But JLA directors believe the DfT has got its sums completely wrong and have called on it to publish a range, eg, from 5m to 8m, instead.
Craig Richmond, chief executive of JLA owner Peel Airports, told LDP Business: “We have huge problems with this. Do you have to give passengers back? It’s just patently wrong.”
The airport also warned that the DfT figures could affect inward investment opportunities with spokesman Robin Tudor saying: “People may say, if the airport’s not growing the region’s not growing.”
Mr Richmond said JLA, supported by Liverpool Chamber of Commerce and inward investment agency The Mersey Partnership, has lobbied the DfT: “We went to London and said this is plain wrong.
“Manchester wasn’t 20m at 2010, they were 17.5m, so you are starting with wrong numbers.
“ I understand Manchester wants to steal passengers from us and we want to steal passengers from them, but it looks like they have already chosen who will lose and who will win.
“We tried to say to them if there is an uncertainty, which there is, say a range.”
He said the DfT’s forecast of 1m passenger growth in 20 years is already wrong: “I can easily see us topping 6m in the next six years.
“We’re coming off our best summer ever and we’re already doing better than their 2020 forecast.
“When cruise ships start and finish here in Liverpool that means more flights in.”
A DfT Spokesperson said: “There is significant uncertainty associated with any attempt to forecast future airport use. So it is unsurprising that DfT’s forecasts differ from those produced by airport operators.
“However, where local forecasts differ from DfT’s forecasts, particularly at the medium and smaller sized airports, they usually exceed them.
“There are several possible reasons for this including, for example, that airport operator forecasts are often prepared for business planning purposes, which will, by their nature, tend towards a more positive view of their business prospects.
“Nevertheless, the airport operator forecasts benefit from being informed by greater knowledge of short term business developments and of the local airport market.
“It should also be remembered that the primary purpose of the DfT’s forecasts is to inform long term strategic aviation policy, and not to provide detailed forecasts at every individual airport within the UK.”
