“GETTING debt under control is proving harder than anyone envisaged,” Prime Minister David Cameron told a business leaders conference at the weekend.

Many commentators have interpreted his statement as a not so subtle hint that, when Chancellor George Osborne delivers his Autumn Statement next week, it will contain bad news about the progress of his plans to cut the public sector finance deficit.

The doom-mongers are predicting that slower- than-expected economic growth will inevitably mean the Government will have to raise taxes, impose more stringent spending cuts, prolong the period of austerity beyond 2014 or some combination of all three.

I’m not so convinced we’re about to hear something too dreadful from the Chancellor.

Mr Cameron’s fearful commentary needs to be nuanced a bit to be properly understood. It’s also important to remember that governments of all hues have a track record of issuing dire prognostications the week before a Budget or Autumn Statement, only for the statement itself to turn out to be a lot less drastic. It’s all about expectations management. If we fear the worst, but the worst doesn’t happen, then the media and the public blow a sigh of relief, rather than get upset about more moderate proposals.

Economic growth has been slower than was predicted at the time of the last Budget, but, there again, it was never expected to be all that great in the first place. Indeed, the latest Government figures published yesterday indicate that currently the Government is on track to meet its deficit reduction targets.

Britain’s public sector borrowing was slightly lower than expected in October, as growth in tax revenue outpaced spending, according to the Office for National Statistics. The ONS said public sector net borrowing, excluding financial sector interventions – the Government’s preferred measure – fell to £6.4bn last month from £7.7bn in October, 2010, slightly below economists’ forecasts of £6.8bn.

The Government is targeting an annual deficit this year of £122bn, down from £137bn in the year to April, 2011.

Clearly, the deficit here and now isn’t the problem. However, things may be different in the coming years. The original OBR growth forecasts saw a return to slightly above trend growth. However, it now looks like this will not happen and that economic growth in the UK will be significantly slower for several more years. It is, therefore, in the years ahead that we are most likely to see a significant departure from the original public sector debt reduction targets.

You would have to question where economic growth could possibly come from. I would expect the Chancellor to stick to his original spending plans, meaning there will not be any substantial fiscal stimulus for the UK economy. British consumers are keeping the pursestrings firmly shut and, indeed, have begun paying down debt rather than taking on credit, a situation that is likely to continue for as long as house prices remain in the doldrums.

Last week, the OECD’s leading indicators index for September showed that every economy it monitors suffered a slowdown, suggesting that life is going to be tough for exporters and it is very unlikely that UK businesses will undertake an investment spending spree while everything is looking weak elsewhere. It could be very bumpy in the years ahead, but, for the time being, the Chancellor will claim he is on track and won’t be changing course just yet.