CONSTRUCTION in the North West will be among the hardest hit in the country as demand falls in the face of economic decline.
A report published today by sector skills council CITB-Construction Skills predicts the region will be one of the worst in the UK for output and employment.
A 0.9% decline in annual average growth over the next five years is only second worse to the West Midlands with a predicted decline of -1.1%.
The Construction Skills Network report forecasts a fall in employment across the North West of 4% in 2012, compared with 2011.
With a 7% decline in output forecast for 2012 – 4% higher decline than the national average – the North West is set for a challenging year ahead, with growth expected to be slow and uneven and no prospect of a recovery until 2013 at the earliest, when output is expected to bounce back by 3%.
Steve Housden, North West sector strategy manager for CITB, said: “We are facing a very bleak time.”
He said the effects of the coalition Government’s dismantling of the Building Schools for the Future programme dealt a serious blow to the region: “The North West benefited quite heavily from the first four waves of that scheme.”
He said the reduction in affordable housing construction across the region is also a problem, and while demand in the manufacturing sector is expected to improve, it cannot counter-balance falls in other areas.
But the report also claims that a range of projects and programmes could cushion the blow for Liverpool and the surrounding areas.
Mr Housden said: “There are some positive aspects that will help stimulate growth in Liverpool.”
These include a £600m investment programme by the University of Liverpool, the Mersey Gateway bridge crossing and Peel’s £4.5bn Wirral Waters proposals.
Mr Housden said: “There is also the North Liverpool Fringe Employment Investment Programme that has £25m of Regional Growth Fund and is developing the Stanley Dock Tobacco Warehouse scheme.”
However, another concern is the loss of skilled workers during the contraction in workload.
Mr Housden said: “One of our concerns is if we do lose people, even though we will see growth from 2013, we have to ensure that we have the people there to respond to programmes coming through.
“So we are urging the industry to continue training people and upskilling their people.”
Eventually, he believes that construction can be a catalyst for regeneration across the region and beyond.
He said: “Figures from the UK Contractors’ Group suggest that every £1 of public investment in the construction industry generates £2.84 of benefit in other areas that act as a stimulus for other areas of the economy.”
