JUST before Christmas, I telephoned a utility company to ask them to carry out some repairs at my home. I could only get through to an automated message which informed me that, due to the bad weather, they were only responding to emergencies and everybody else should call back another day.

The company’s message claimed that the lack of routine service was due to the very high levels of demand being placed on the business from the extreme cold. I suspect, however, that the excuse was misleading. While demand would undoubtedly have been high, the truth is the real problem was the company’s maintenance engineers were unable to report for work. What the message should have said was “We are unable to provide routine service because most of our staff have stayed off work.”

Indeed, in many parts of the country, weather conditions were very difficult. North East Scotland, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire and many parts of the Home Counties experienced very deep snowfalls. In these places, it would have been genuinely difficult to get to work.

It should be no surprise, therefore, that the bad weather will have played a significant part in the very poor GDP figures published yesterday. Just remember how Heathrow and many other airports were closed for days on end and you’ll get a feel for the scale of the economic disruption.

During what was meant to be the peak shopping week, many people were deterred from venturing out because of the icy conditions under foot.

The restaurant trade suffered due to cancelled office parties, and the construction industry was unable to continue with much of its work.

And on it goes. In terms of economic analysis, this is hardly rocket science. After we’ve got over the initial shock of the negative figure, the cooler heads were yesterday refusing to panic and confidently predicting a return to growth in the next quarter.

Let’s hope they’re right, because if they’re not we’re in serious trouble.

To have economic output falling at a time of rising inflation is about the worst combination of circumstances that our economic managers could have to cope with. Known as stagflation, such conditions are an economist’s worst nightmare.

What is the Bank of England’s Monetary Committee (MPC) to do in such circumstances? Raise interest rates in an effort to curb inflation or keep them low in an effort to stimulate the economy back into sustained growth?

My guess is the majority of MPC members will see yesterday’s growth statistic as a blip and will, over the next few months, think about raising interest rates. They should not mistake a lack of gritting salt and snow ploughs for too much spare economic capacity.

What is less predictable is the psychological effects on business and consumers of these figures. Will the news cause spending and business investment to be trimmed, or will people carry on regardless?

When we had a couple of weeks of bad weather at the start of 2010, we found that a huge amount of economic activity was deferred to the second quarter of the year, which produced a surprisingly strong growth rate of 1.2% as businesses caught up with their plans. On this basis, it is not unreasonable to hope a strong rebound will be recorded when GDP data is published for the second quarter of 2011.

If I were a betting man, my money would be on there being no double-dip recession. After all, spring is on its way.