An expected rise in high street sales ahead of January’s VAT hike failed to materialise last month as official figures today revealed flat sales between August and September.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed the second month in a row of zero growth in retail sales volumes.
Experts had expected sales to rise by 0.5% as they predicted an early seasonal rush by shoppers to buy now and avoid the Government’s move to increase VAT back to 17.5% from the temporary reduction to 15%.
On a year-on-year basis, the ONS said sales volumes rose 2.4%, but economists described the monthly result as “disappointing”. A 0.1% drop in food store sales offset rises elsewhere in the sector.
Non-food shop sales were flat last month compared with August, despite a 0.5% fall in sales of clothes and footwear.
Retailers offering other goods and repair services enjoyed 0.9% growth as the recession-fuelled trend to “make-do and mend” continued.
The ONS figures also showed a further revival in fortunes for shops selling electricals and furniture, with the household goods sector notching up a 3.3% rise in sales for three-month figures to the end of September – the largest increase since June 2006.
By value, total sales rose by 1.8% year-on-year in September and the ONS estimated that retail prices were 0.5% lower than a year earlier.
Food inflation also eased from near 8% last September to less than 2% last month, it added.
Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said the monthly sales result “reinforces suspicion that consumers still need significant encouragement to put their hands in their pockets and spend”.
But James Knightley at ING is hopeful of a pick-up in time for the Christmas season.
“With consumer confidence rising due to better news on the housing market, strengthening equities and a marked slowdown in the rate of deterioration in the labour market, we look for stronger retail sales figures in coming months - especially on big ticket items ahead of the hike in VAT,” he said.





