Surprise services sector fall drags down recovery

A far weaker than expected performance from the UK’s powerhouse services sector was the main culprit behind the surprise fall in output in the third quarter.

Economists were caught off-guard by the 0.2% decline for the sector – which accounts for around 70% of output – despite much more positive signs from monthly industry surveys.

“Output in the construction and industrial sectors was broadly as we expected, so the main surprise was the 0.2% drop in services sector output,” Capital Economics’ Vicky Redwood said.

The estimates showed production industry output – manufacturing, utilities and mining – down 0.7% in Q3, with construction declining by 1.1%.

The pressure on consumers to cut back was also underlined by a 1% fall in output from the distribution, hotels and catering sector.

“This suggests that spending off the high street remains extremely weak,” Ms Redwood added.

The UK economy’s continuing malaise contrasts with other major European economies such as France and Germany, which returned to growth in the second quarter of 2009. UK output fell by 0.6% in the same period.

The eurozone as a whole is also expected to register positive growth in the third quarter after better than expected industrial production.

By contrast in the UK, the latest figures showed a steep 2.5% fall in output from the wider production industries, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Investec chief economist Philip Shaw said: “It looks as though the UK will be the last of the major economies to recover.”

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