Spotting the way to make Euro profit

May 23 2007 by Chris Wright, Liverpool Daily Post

THREE times Liverpool have faced Italian opposition in the European Cup final. Three times the match has been decided by a penalty.

So there is no need to defy history and precedent and back anything else.

While the nerves may not be able to take any more penalty shoot-outs, there seems to so many these days that you simply have to bet on them deciding any big match.

With penalties deciding two FA Cup finals in recent years, the most recent World, UEFA and African Nations Cups all doing likewise, plus what happened between these two sides in Istanbul two years ago, if you having a bet, you must bet on their being a shoot-out (9-2 Skybet).

And with Liverpool’s record of 10 wins from 11 penalty competitions, the 10-1 (Ladbrokes) offered for them adding to that in Athens is the best bet of the match.

Two years ago I expected a tight, tense final decided by one goal. As it turned out that couldn’t have been further from the truth. But with Liverpool likely to be determined not to suffer from the early stage fright from Istanbul and Milan probably wary of going gung-ho from the start with memories of that fightback fresh in the minds, this game could be very cagey.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing no goalscorer (13-2 Paddy Power, Boylesports), but Liverpool could take the lead this time. Harry Kewell (16-1 William Hill, BetDirect, VCbet, Paddy Power, Skybet) would be interesting for first goal if he started. He will be determined to put his triple final woes behind him this time and could play a key role tonight. But if the Australian is left on the bench then go for Dirk Kuyt (9-1 William Hill, BetDirect, Paddy Power) to finally ‘score’ in the Champions League.

There are so many markets on the finals that you need to sift through the best from the worst.

One I like is for Milan midfielder Gennaro Gattuso to be the first player booked (7-1 Ladbrokes, BlueSquare). If you saw his performance and reaction in the semi-final win over Manchester United you will know he is keen to made amends for his Istanbul agony.