Hospitals prepare for an explosion in dementia

Jun 7 2007 by Vicky Anderson, Liverpool Daily Post

INCIDENCE of dementia is set to rise by almost 50% in the next 15 years in some parts of Merseyside.

The figures were revealed in research for the Alzheimer’s Society carried out by the London School of Economics and King’s College London.

According to the statistics, the most affected area will be Cheshire, where 48% more cases are predicted in the coming years.

In Warrington, it could be an increase of 43%, while Lancashire is facing a 40% rise.

Other predicted figures are a 38% rise in Halton; 36% in St Helens; 30% in Sefton; 28% in Wirral, and 22% in Knowsley.

In Liverpool, the growth will be significantly lower at 11%.

The ageing population is responsible for the increase, health experts said last night.

Maggie Williams, North region director of the Alzheimer’s Society, said the future treatment of dementia had to be a “priority”.

She said: “We need leadership from local authorities and services to develop plans to respond to the challenge.”

In response, the region’s health authorities told the Daily Post the impending problem is something they are preparing for.

Western Cheshire PCT, which serves Ellesmere Port and Neston, and is in the area expecting the largest increase, said that its population of over-65s will increase by 8,000 – 19% – in the next 15 years.

Figures show that incidence of dementia will increase from 8,563 cases today to 12,657 in that time.

A spokesperson said: “We are aware that the number of older people in Cheshire’s population is projected to increase over the next few years and it is important that we work closely with partner organisations, such as social services, to make sure that services are place to keep older people as well as possible, for as long as possible.”

Health experts in Lancashire, also expecting a steep rise, say that the size of the county, and the number of older people who retire in its coastal towns, means there is a larger older population there than most.

There are 14,922 dementia sufferers there today, which is expected to rise to 20,891.

Dr Ian Davidson, medical director at mental health NHS Trust the Cheshire and Wirral Partnership, said: “We agree with the Alzheimer’s Society that this is a very real issue and we have already anticipated a rising need for dementia services.

“We have discussed this matter with the three primary care trusts (PCTs) that commission services from us and if they come to us with a requirement to provide more services we are confident that we can meet that need.

“We have considerable expertise in dealing with dementia from assessment and treatment, through to long term management.

“Professor Ken Wilson and colleagues at the Institute of Human Ageing are based in the Trust and work closely with the University of Liverpool to contribute to world class research on older people, including dementia.”

Dr Janet Atherton, Director of Public Health for Sefton, where a 30% rise is predicted said: “The figures reflect our forecasts of people with a range of long term illnesses, including dementia.

“We are already looking at how we can best prepare to meet the needs of our changing population.

“We will need to provide more services to help people better manage conditions such as dementia, and by planning for these developments now, we hope to ensure that in the future all our residents are given the support they need to live as healthy lives as possible.”

Dr John Rigby, consultant psychologist and clinical director of older people’s mental health services for Merseycare NHS Trust, said: “The increase in dementia is part of a general trend as we become a more ageing population – that is something we have known for 25 years, so it is no shock or surprise.”

vickyanderson