Liverpool scientists reduce risk of avian flu outbreak to ‘almost zero’

Oct 25 2007 by Caroline Innes, Liverpool Daily Post

THE chance of a large avian flu outbreak in the UK has been reduced to almost zero after experts at the University of Liverpool discovered large outbreaks are more likely to involve duck meat.

The scientists at the university found that while 73% of avian flu outbreaks in the UK would not spread beyond the initial infected farm, larger outbreaks are much more likely to involve the duck meat industry.

The findings have now been used to produce a strategy to com-bat avian flu and has reduced the chance of a large outbreak in the UK to almost zero.

The scientists have now created a model to limit the movement of birds as well as trace potential contacts where transmission of the disease is more likely.

The findings were made after a team from the university’s Fac-ulty of Veterinary Science and Department of Mathematical Sciences was asked to produce an avian flu model by the Depart-ment of the Environment and Rural Affairs.

Their pioneering study – based on the Asian strain of the virus – revealed that areas at most risk from disease were East Anglia, Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire, largely due to the numbers of duck meat firms in these districts.

The team believes that duck meat was more likely to cause large outbreaks of avian flu because ducks often do not show signs of the disease and, conse-quently, this delays diagnosis and control of the infection.

The scientists then used a computer model to simulate millions of outbreaks of avian flu, so that even rare outbreak scenarios could be observed to understand how the disease might spread across the UK so response plans can be developed.

This is the first time such a study has been conducted and controls will now be implemented by the Government to limit any outbreak from spreading.

Dr Rob Christley said: “Our model is unique in the level of detail regarding contact points between farms.

“We modelled four contact routes: local transmission, where infection is spread in the area due to wind and wild animals; trans-mission via delivery of feed where lorries may pick up the virus at one farm and carry it to another; transmission via slaughterhouse lorries and transmission via company workers, where person-nel may carry the virus to other farms within the same company as they go about their daily work.

“We have also classified 12,000 farms in the UK according to the species they raise and the purpose of the farm; for example is it a chicken meat farm, chicken egg farm or duck meat?

”The model also provides ana-lysis of government policy and will reduce the chance of very large outbreaks to almost zero.”

carolineinnes