TO PARAPHRASE PG Wodehouse, it is never very difficult to tell the difference between an economist and a ray of sunshine. It certainly seems that the media is currently full of opinions from members of “the dismal science” cautioning against getting carried away by the recent strength in investment markets.

Although I must confess to having strong sympathy with this advice, it is very much the “consensus” and if experience in financial markets teaches us anything, it is that the best time to re-examine one’s views is when everyone else agrees with them.

We are all now aware that Western economies are over-indebted and that consumers are both unable (banks will not lend) and unwilling (due to job insecurity and impending increases in tax burdens) to drive growth forwards.

We know that if the past is any guide, systemic problems of the nature seen in the financial crisis take many years to work through. This unappealing prognosis is made all the more likely by recent gyrations in sovereign debt prices, which could trigger untimely fiscal retrenchment whilst also undermining the bedrock of valuations in wider investment markets.

Finally, political leadership appears to be lacking (some would say fragmenting), with the only source of strong demand-led growth coming from historically volatile developing markets – at the centre of which sits China, an emerging superpower with a long memory of past injustices and with a very hungry population to feed.

So far so gloomy, but if for no other reason than to challenge consensus, now should be a good time to ask the question “what could go right?”

Potential positives can be divided into four groups: politics, self help, external change, and sentiment.

Firstly, to politics. However cynical one may be, it is just possible that the new generation of political leaders, either forged in the crisis or inheriting its aftermath, will make good decisions and build the foundations for strong growth in the future.

So far, the signs are quite good that this may be the case – decisions taken at the height of the crisis have seen ideology taking a back-seat to pragmatism. This has been true in all the challenged developed economies and bodes well for the UK, even if the dreaded hung parliament materialises after the forthcoming election.