Predictable Premier League needs some Russian revolution

Mar 6 2008 by Alex Turner, Liverpool Daily Post

THERE was only one thing more predictable last weekend than Dmitry Medvedev’s victory in the Russian elections and that took place 1,500 miles away, where the red flags have long been replaced by white flags – Derby.

The match between Derby (one win, eight goals in 13 home matches) and Sunderland (no wins, nine goals, in 14 away matches) shocked nobody when it ended goalless, in spite of Derby’s passable impression as the Keystone Cops in recent weeks.

Derby are proving to be a Premiership aberration – their season review DVD is being presented by Dennis Norden – but they are not the only club whose results are proving to be drearily predictable despite excitement and fear rising in equal measure at either end of the Premiership.

It’s one from three for the title and probably one from seven for the final relegation spot and, with half the league’s teams aiming for triumph or salvation, it seems that almost anything is possible.

Well, yes it is, but only within very tight parameters.

The Premier League is far and away the most polarised of the four English leagues, and there seems little chance of this changing soon.

For example, this season the bottom seven clubs have won just five of their 98 away matches.

Worse, and quite incredibly, only once this season has a team currently in the bottom half of the Premier League won away against a top-half team. That dubious honour goes to Middlesbrough, who won at Portsmouth.

One victory outside their home in seven months is a record that would have seen candidates for the Presidential nomination give up. But the Premier League bandwagon continues to trudge through mud.

It isn’t much better at the top. Last year’s top four have pretty impressive home records stretching back over recent seasons.

And despite Aston Villa’s increasingly valiant efforts, conceding late equalisers at Anfield and the Emirates Stadium, the four clubs are rarely beaten at home by the league’s other 16 clubs.

So far in 2007-08, after 55 matches at Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge, the Emirates and Anfield, only once have the home fans seen a defeat by one of the so-called lesser lights: Manchester United’s 1-0 loss to city rivals Manchester City.

There seems more chance of Michael Owen improving on his two league goals in five months than Newcastle winning at Anfield this Saturday.

And just like free and fair elections in Russia, one day it could happen. But don’t expect it to anytime soon.