Cloudy can rain on Irish parade to dent domination

CLOUDY Lane looks a rock-solid choice to stop the Irish domination of the John Smith’s Grand National this afternoon.

In Capital of Culture year there would be no more fitting winner of the Aintree showpiece than a Merseyside-born heir to the National’s most famous stable.

Son of four-time winner Ginger, Donald McCain junior looks to have a horse more then capable of following in the hoofprints of legendary triple hero Red Rum and 2004 winner Amberleigh House.

McCain’s Cloudy Lane is favourite for a reason – because he has all the right credentials to stop the Irish taking a seventh victory in the 4m4f marathon in the last nine years.

As an eight-year-old he is the right age and with just 10st11lb on his back he has an ideal weight. And following three successive wins at Haydock, Ayr and Doncaster he is bang in form and according to his trainer he has been handled to peak at around 4.15pm today.

If Liverpool-born handicapper Phil Smith could do weights again he would have Cloudy Lane as top weight so theoretically he is well-in on the handicap.

Add to that the fact the Cholmondeley stable was the last on this side of the Irish Sea to triumph with Amberleigh House’s success and that McCain junior played just as key a role in that win as his father, it is hard not to expect he will go close to victory.

Bred and owned by Lancastrian Trevor Hemmings, who has been a great advocate of the National and achieved his long-held ambition of having the winner with Hedgehunter three years ago, Cloudy Lane looks to have all the elements of an Aintree story waiting to happen.

It may seem too good to be true and the fact that he has never jumped over the daunting Aintree obstacles and has yet to prove he stays the marathon 4m4f trip are valid reasons why he may not win.

But the positives far outweigh the negatives and there could be a new McCain name on the roll of honour today.

Of course there are plenty of dangers to the favourite and the Irish will provide quite a few.

Slim Pickings wasn’t that far off winning last year.

Tom Taaffe’s nine-year-old was less than two lengths behind Silver Birch when finishing third 12 months ago and he certainly showed a liking for Aintree.

Most of the recent winners have had a taste of the fences before, although not all. He has been specifically trained for another crack at the National.

But he will carry more than 11st this time and is likely to have to settle for a place once again at best.

A more interesting proposition is Dessie Hughes’s Black Apalachi. Aged nine, with just 10st8lb on his back, and with form in some of Ireland’s decent three-mile handicaps, he has the profile of a horse who has been campaigned quietly for the race.

On his second in the Thyestes Chase to Priests Leap at Gowran Park in January, he looks to be the best each-way bet today.

Others who could run into a place are last year’s co-favourite and first-fence faller Point Barrow.

Pat Hughes’ 2006 Irish National winner never had the chance to show his ability when departing so early in the race and providing last year’s experience hasn’t left its mark, he is capable of a big run.

David Pipe’s Eider Chase hero Comply Or Die showed his liking to staying trips at Newcastle and was also second behind Cloudy Lane in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. He must also come into calculations off 10st9lb.

He showed he jumps and stays and could play a hand in the finish.

The Venetia Williams-trained Mon Mome ran a decent trial when sixth in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival, staying on well at the finish 11 lengths behind An Accordion.

The eight-year-old was second in the Welsh National and placed at Haydock and Cheltenham last season. He is another who looks to have been trained to peak today.

Tony McCoy again bids to end his long National drought, and in last year’s Irish Grand National hero Butler’s Cabin, he again has a decent opportunity.

He stays well and is generally a sound jumper. But he has been known to sulk on the track – Butler’s Cabin not McCoy – and can throw in the odd woeful performance. He is also a French-bred and none have won the race for 99 years.

GRAND NATIONAL PREDICTION: 1 CLOUDY LANE 2 Black Apalachi 3 Point Barrow4 Comply Or DieBest of the rest: Mon Mome1 CLOUDY LANE 2 Black Apalachi 3 Point Barrow4 Comply Or DieBest of the rest: Mon Mome

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