AT LONG last, we appear to be out of recession. It’s been an uncomfortable journey over the last two years, but at least we’ve made it. Just.
But although the latest figures mean that the economy has started to grow again, they do not mean that we can all breathe sighs of relief and carry on as we were at the beginning of 2008.
All they really show is that we have turned the corner. Now we need to keep back on track for maybe another couple of years more, just to get back to where we were.
That is, of course, assuming that we do not go back into reverse in the next quarter, the so-called double dip.
Let’s be at least reasonably optimistic, though. There is still a bumpy path ahead, and it is well-known that a public feel-good factor in the economy usually lags quite a bit behind what the statistics say.
That will be an uncomfortable thought for Labour, facing a general election in the next few months at a time when a battered electorate may well feel the Government needs taking down a peg or two, if not bundling out of office altogether.
By the same token, Conservative strategists may be secretly quite happy the election is this year and not next, when public memories of the last two years may not be so grim.
But, whoever is in power in the second half of this year, they will have to face the fact that the Government has borrowed heavily to kick-start the economy.
That bill will have to be paid, and all of us, regardless of political affiliation, must feel a bit nervous about what items of public spending will be cut, and what effect this will have on the private sector.
We may be pointed in the right direction, but we’re not home and dry.





