Jim Hancock: Tories are on a roll

Oct 6 2008 by Jim Hancock, Liverpool Daily Post

I’M TOLD Freshers Week at Liverpool’s universities has seen the best recruitment figures for the Conservative Associations in years.

The news was given to me in Birmingham where the surge in confidence among Tories was palpable. Gone were the dispirited gatherings at the turn of the century when Conservatives, ripe in years, mingled with geeky young right-wing desperados.

The smiles were wide, the exhibition large and Britain was on display in all its diversity. Young, ethnic minority and female delegates were in plentiful supply.

The autumn conferences are good indicators of the waxing and waning of party fortunes. Birmingham felt like the Tory gatherings in the late seventies on the eve of Margaret Thatcher’s ascension to power.

I was reflecting on this with David Fletcher. A Wirral Conservative from Prenton, his business card announces him as Hon Alderman David Fletcher.

In a queue for one of the many well-attended fringe meetings in Birmingham, he revealed that the first Tory conference he attended was Winston Churchill’s last as Conservative leader in 1954.

Hon Alderman Fletcher is firmly of the view that David Cameron is on his way to Downing Street. But not just yet, I fancy.

While we were all negotiating our way around the labyrinthine Birmingham International Conference complex, the capitalist world was teetering on the brink.

As the House of Representatives initially denied George Bush his bail-out, I entertained the thought that, if Terry Fields had still been alive, he’d have been telling us “I told you so”.

The late Broadgreen Militant MP had frequently forecast a crisis in capitalism. Well, we’re living through it now, and it could save Gordon Brown’s bacon.

The Prime Minister’s jibe against the Tories, that this is no time for a novice, was perhaps also aimed at the pretenders to his throne within the Cabinet.

The feeling is growing among Labour activists and MPs on Merseyside that for better, or probably worse, they are locked in to Mr Brown’s leadership. It is too risky to unseat him during this financial crisis.

The reassurance sent out to Blairites, with the Third Coming of Peter Mandelson, further buttresses his position, in the short term, at least.

Last week, I thought a defeat in the Glenrothes by-election would be terminal for Mr Brown. Now I’m not so sure.

With fresh faces around the Cabinet table and a difficult economic winter facing us all, the rebels will have to show more bottle and a better strategy than they have so far displayed, to move against the Prime Minister in the wake of another Scottish Nationalist victory.

I encountered one of the Merseyside Three at the weekend. These are the local MPs who asked for leadership nomination forms weeks ago.

When I asked for a view on Mr Brown’s position as Parliament resumes, a finger was pressed to his lips.

I deduce that the rebels may bide their time, possibly until the June European elections, before deciding if a change of leader is still needed.