Jim Hancock: Strain of a revolt for Labour

Apr 21 2008 by Jim Hancock, Liverpool Daily Post

IT’S 40 years since Harold Wilson, Prime Minister and MP for Huyton, led his party into a disastrous round of local elections.

Then, as now, the Labour government’s unpopularity had economic causes. Wilson had just devalued the pound saying that it would not affect “the pound in your pocket or purse”. Now, in addition to the general economic downturn, Gordon Brown faces a backbench revolt over the abolition of the 10p tax band.

Next Monday in Parliament, Birkenhead’s Frank Field will propose compensation for the low earners who stand to lose from the change. He could rally around him a sizeable number of Labour rebels and the strain is beginning to tell on the Government.

The neighbouring seat of Wallasey is represented by Angela Eagle. At the weekend, she was asked if the Government was planning a climbdown. The Treasury Minister’s response was “wait and see” – a comment immediately slapped down by officials.

So it looks pretty grim for Labour as we approach the local elections. The key contest will be in Liverpool which I’ll cover next week, but, for now, let’s consider how this first test for Gordon Brown as PM and Nick Clegg as leader of the Lib-Dems will pan out in the councils around the city.

Things might not turn out as badly for Labour as the polls suggest. Labour did poorly in the wake of the Iraq war when the seats were last contested in 2004, so further gains for the party’s opponents are harder to achieve.

The fact that two of Wirral’s Labour MPs are debating the abolition of the 10p tax band is not a helpful backdrop for the party locally seeking to retain its position as the largest group on Wirral council. However, it seems unlikely that the coalition with the Lib-Dems will be disturbed after polling day.

However strongly the economic gale blows, Labour’s full control of Halton and Knowsley won’t be shaken.

But, in the latter case, it will be interesting to watch the performance of the First For Kirkby candidates concerned about the Everton move and its consequences.

The Lib-Dems look set to continue to lead the administrations in the hung councils of St Helens, Sefton and Warrington. In the latter case, they could take full control.

The Conservatives will retain West Lancashire, and will probably take charge of the entirely new council of West Cheshire and Chester when it is set up in 2009. The scrapping of seven councils in favour of two all-purpose authorities to cover the Cheshire county area was bitterly opposed, not least by the late Gwyneth Dunwoody, MP for Crewe.

On May 1, voters in Chester, Ellesmere Port, Northwich and Winsford will elect a “shadow” council. Around170 councillors will lose their seats and some not selected for new wards are standing as independents.

It’s going to be a difficult election for Labour, but perhaps they can buck the trend in Liverpool. More on that next week.