Energy questions that will need to be answered

Oct 29 2007 by Peter Elson, Liverpool Daily Post

THE other week, I joked about the new nature reserve of Wallasea Island being preserved in perpetuity until oil and natural gas is found beneath it. I now discover from a new report that the future lack of fuels could cause consequen- ces far more dire than this.

This survey by German-based Energy Watch Group grimly warns that extreme fossil fuel shortages will lead to wars and social breakdown.

Oil production, it claims, peaked last year, which was much earlier than previously expected. From now on, fossil fuel production will drop by around 7% annually. This appears to be not a case of crying wolf, as the markets are now setting record prices for oil every day over the last week and hit more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

Britain’s oil production has peaked already – some eight years ago – and has already dropped by about a half since 1999 to 1.6m barrels a day So what are we doing? Looking out across Burbo Bank and other locations around the Mersey and Dee estuaries, we see a forest of wind turbines whirling around. What appeared to be blank open sea is now an active wind farm which has made a huge visual impact. How many more wind turbines can we cram in? Even our local seascape seems crowded.

Yet, overall, Britain’s production of renewable power accounts for about 4% of British electricity and 2% of the country’s overall energy needs.

This contrasts with the German policy model – home of the report – which guarantees above-market payments to producers of renewable power, which is being adopted in many other countries. Except here.

Hans-Josef Fell, a German MP and founder of EWG, who has driven Germany’s successful renewable energy support scheme, is deeply damning of British leaders’ response to what he sees as a looming catastrophe.

“Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot about climate change, but have not brought in proper policies to drive up the use of renewables,” says Mr Fell.

“This is why they are left talking about nuclear and carbon capture and storage.”

It’s a fascin- ating (if not desperate) turn-around when you recall what a bete noire nuclear power once was to left-wing politicians.

But their reaction is played against a background of unabated rising demand and falling supply, says Mr Fell, adding, “This is a huge problem for the world economy.”

Certainly, we have nothing to be complacent about. The British energy economist, David Fleming, has also brought attention to the outcome of nations making a grab for fossil fuel reserves.

Already, the leading US economist, Alan Greenspan, has claimed that the Iraq War is fundamentally about control of oil, with the so-called war on terror being no more than window-dressing.

Mr Fleming says: “Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month.

“For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more, as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society.”

Certainly, if oil prices continue to rise, we can’t escape the consequence of inevitable worldwide change which will impact upon every aspect of our lives. Our world, which has become so heavily based on plastics derived from oil, will disappear.

Major petroleum products include petrol, aviation fuels, kerosene, diesel, lubricating oils, bitumen, plastics, synthetic rubber, packaging, fabrics, dyes, adhesives and paint.

When I started my career, I used a metal typewriter, now I’m writing this column on a plastic keyboard and screen. Worse than the impact on typing, our lights will go out and our means of cooking will cease.

One of the few groups addressing the problems of “peak oil”, the Oil Depletion Impact Group, is based at the University of Liverpool.

Environmentalist Jeremy Leggett, who wrote a book about oil depletion called Half Gone, says that the Brit- ish government and our energy industry is in “institutionalised denial”.

It’s chilling (and will get chillier) and we can’t say we weren’t warned, but both answers and action seem as elusive as ever.

peter.elson@dailypost.co.uk