Brown Bounce

Aug 1 2007 by Rob Merrick, Liverpool Daily Post

THE MPs have left for the beach (abroad, presumably) and the journalists are doing likewise - all wondering if they will return to a snap general election.

The "Brown Bounce" and the "Cameron Collapse" combined to create an even more feverish atmosphere than normal as Westminster packed up for the summer. In just one month, Gordon Brown appears to have convinced voters he is not the Stalinist control-freak of legend and instead a sensible fresh of air after the showbiz of the latter Blair years.

Meanwhile, a few days in Rwanda while his constituents all but drowned and a couple of disastrous by-election campaigns have made poor old David Cameron look, well, a bad bet.

With Labour back in front in the polls, will the Prime Minister cut-and-run while an election looks there for the winning - even as early as October 25, a date suggested this week?

That scenario has Mr Brown announcing the date in his Labour conference speech on September 24, throwing the Tory get-together the following week into total chaos. Instead of rallying his unhappy troops by the seaside, Mr Cameron would be forced to cancel or curtail his conference and get on the campaign trail immediately.

It could happen, but I don't think it will, not least because Labour - still £23m in the red and with those embarrassing loans to repay - simply cannot afford it.

With the Tories banking £20m in a year - four times Labour's income - the financial match-up currently resembles Liverpool versus Tranmere Rovers. Another factor making a snap poll unlikely is Mr Brown's innate caution.

Would he really risk going down in history as the man who was Prime Minister for just four months? Furthermore, in October, the European Union will be signing its new treaty - an emotional rallying point for the Tories, who would make their pledge to hold a referendum an election issue.

A general election next spring - giving Mr Brown a year to show real achievement - is far more likely, although even that requires Labour's poll lead to grow.

On present showing, the Prime Minister would be risking the headache of a hung Parliament. He still needs more bounce.